This Little-Known Voting Tactic Can Stop Trump in Iowa
Iowans can lead the nation in tactical voting to dump Trump and save our democracy. Show us how it’s done, Iowa!
Iowans are holding a much stronger electoral hand than they might realize. The first primary allows all Iowans (not just Republicans) to choose the GOP frontrunner and set the tone for the rest of the country. If Trump underperforms Monday night, it just might expose his weakness and embolden Republicans to stand up to him. It might also encourage voters in other primary states to vote tactically.
A recent article in the Washington Post suggested that tactical voting by non-Republicans in Iowa could cause an upset in the race. It explained how the primary could be disrupted by Democratic and independent crossover voters. Unlike the MAGA insurrection, this is a perfectly legal, ethical, and peaceful way to influence the outcome of an election.
Only registered Republicans may participate in the GOP caucuses that convene Monday at 7 p.m. local time, and only in their designated home precincts. But that rule is less restrictive than it might seem at first glance; Iowans are allowed to register or change their party affiliation on caucus day, and anyone who will be 18 by the November general election may participate.
So, if you’re a Democrat, changing your party affiliation on caucus day and voting for the Republican you prefer in 2024 might sound like a more worthwhile way to spend your Monday night than selecting delegates to your party’s county convention. In 2016, 20 percent of Republican caucus-goers told the entry poll they identified as independents and 2 percent identified as Democrats.
Several factors seem to be converging for a new top challenger in the GOP primary:
Haley’s demonstrated willingness to criticize and even ridicule Trump in the Iowa debate.
DeSantis’ poor debate performance and obvious fear of offending MAGA Republicans.
Christie’s decision to drop out, making anti-Trump Republicans available to Haley.
The lack of any other viable primary challenger.
Haley’s head-to-head debate performance put her above DeSantis in Iowa polls. This is already reflected in the betting markets.
In the last two days, the betting margin between a Trump and Haley win in New Hampshire has dropped from 80% to 34%. Trump had 4-to-1 odds over Haley in New Hampshire the day before the Iowa debate. The day after, it dropped to 2-to-1. What will it be if Haley wins, or does well, in Iowa?
Whatever else you may think about Nikki Haley, she’s not anti-democracy. She’s not going to incite a violent insurrection if she loses. She’s not going to mishandle sensitive classified information. She’s not going to sexually abuse anyone. She won’t threaten judges or prosecutors. She’s unlikely to cozy up to the “good people” at a violent Nazi protest. She’s smart and educated. She has compassion for women who are going through difficult pregnancies. She doesn’t deny the reality of global warming. I can’t imagine her throwing ketchup at the wall if she doesn’t get her way.
It’s true that Haley would have a good chance of beating Biden, but I’m guessing that the majority of crossover Iowa voters would be willing to accept a 50% chance of a Haley presidency over a 100% chance of losing our democracy of Trump wins. Iowans have the power to stop Trump. But only if Democrats and independents cross over and vote for her in the Iowa primary.
